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Showing posts with label Fundamental. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fundamental. Show all posts

Fundamental Analysis - June 2, 2010

Asia Session
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8:30 pm - Australia - GDP - Figures released this time is expected to show a slowing to 0.6%. This figure is potentially influence market movements and also the reaction of investors because the data is worse than last quarter's GDP amounted to 0.9%.

European Session
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14:15 pm - Switzerland - Retail Sales - Swiss retail sales predicted to decline, although still in positive territory. If released in the prediction of 3.7%, it will be good for CHF.

15:30 pm - UK - Construction PMI - Optimism in the construction sector still seem relatively similar. Data last month amounted to 58.2 and this time the data is predicted to be the same or increased slightly to 58.3. If released in the above figure, will benefit the GBP.

15:30 pm - UK - Net Lending to individuals - Total lending to consumers rose from 0.6 billion predicted to be 1.1 billion GBP GBP. If released in the above figure, would be beneficial because it shows the bank GBP starting to believe again to lend, and potentially increasing consumer spending data for the future.

Sessions America
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21:00 pm - Europe - Speech Axel Weber - President of the Deutsche Bundesbank will make a speech at one school in Hachenburg. Optimistic statements that will support the euro.

21:00 pm - America - Pending Home Sales - The number of property transactions are still waiting for the final return is expected to slow, increasing only 4.9% expected. Two months ago, the data showed a significant increase 8.2%. If released in the top 4.9% will benefit the U.S. dollar.

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Analisa Fundamental – 27 Mei 2010

Eropa Session
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13:40 WIB — Amerika — Pidato Bullard — Presiden Fed St. Louis, James Bullard, akan membawakan pidato berjudul “Policy Challenges for Central Banks in the aftermath of the Crisis” di Konferensi SwedBank “Economic Policy in Aftermath of the Crisis”, bertempat di kota Stockholm.

17:00 WIB — Inggris — CBI Realized Sales — Survey terhadap ritel dan grosir di Inggris menunjukkan angka sama sebesar 13 dalam 2 bulan terakhir, dan data hari ini diperkirakan juga akan sama di kisaran 13.

Amerika Session
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19:30 WIB — Amerika — Preliminary GDP — Data GDP Inggris akan dinantikan, setelah melesat tajam 5,9% bulan lalu, data hari ini diprediksi akan terkoreksi, namun masih positif. Jika dirilis di atas 3,5% maka akan baik bagi GBP, karena data ini menggambarkan prediksi kesehatan ekonomi Inggris.

19:30 WIB — Amerika — Unemployment Claims — Klaim pengangguran minggu lalu secara mengejutkan naik menjadi 471.000 padahal diprediksikan turun sebelumnya. Data hari ini diprediksi akan turun menjadi 450.000. Jika dirilis lebih tinggi, bahkan lebih dari bulan lalu, akan membebani USD.

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Had rebounded overnight, the EUR / USD back down below 1.23. Pairs are now in the 1.228 level. The next support level at 1.226. Bernanke's statement that the Fed will continue to provide supply to the planned exchange of CAD makes Euro depressed. Several banks in Europe reportedly USD liquidity difficulties at this time.

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Fundamental analysis - May 25, 2010

European Session
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13:00 pm - Switzerland - UBS consumption indicator - This data is a combination of several other indicators, including consumer spending, consumer confidence, tourism, automotive, and retail. If better than the data released last month amounted to CHF 1.71 will be profitable.

15:30 pm - English - Revised GDP - GDP figure is very important because it will provide the benchmark of economic activity in the UK today. Predicted figures were the same as before, namely equal to 0.3%. If the release is better, it will provide support for the GBP.

16:00 pm - Europe - Industrial New Orders - The number of orders on manufacturing-manufacturing in Europe rose 1.5% last month. This month, an increase of 2.2% is predicted to be listed, if released in the 2.2% it will be good for the Euros.

American session
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21:00 pm - America - CB Consumer Confidence - The data has increased significantly last month and this showed increased optimism of American society to the current economic conditions. Today's data is also predicted to rise again to 59.1. If released in the above figures, it will benefit the U.S. dollar.

22:15 pm - America - Speech Bullard - President of the Fed St. Louis, James Bullard, will bring a speech titled "The Road to Economic Recovery Following the Financial Crisis" at the European Economics and Financial Center, London.

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Fundamental analysis - May 14, 2010


American session


19:20 pm - Europe - Axel Speech Weber - President of the Deutsche Bundesbank will bring a seminar entitled "Lessons for monetary policy from financial crisis" at the 12th annual Seminar on Inflation Targeting Banco Central do Brazil, Rio de Janeiro.

19:30 pm - Canada - Manufacturing Sales - After a relatively stagnant last month, the volume of sales by manufacturers in Canada are expected to again increase at 1.1% today. If released better than these figures, it will be advantageous CAD.

19:30 pm - U.S. - Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales - Having posted a significant increase last month, retail sales data today is predicted to slow down, but still in positive zone.

20:55 pm - America - Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment - consumer sentiment in the last three months continues to decline, and last month a significant decrease. Data today will probably show an increase to 73.5, if released in the above predictions will benefit the USD, contrary to a further decline will put pressure for the currency.

21:00 pm - America - Business Inventories - This number shows the amount of inventory tied up in the manufacturing warehouse, the smaller the numbers are released the better for CAD because it depicts the high consumer demand.

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Seminggu penuh menunggu keputusan bank sentral Asia untuk menaikkan suku bunga. Ekspektasi  di pasar meningkat dan lebih cenderung untuk memperketat kebijakan suku bunga  dan moneter lebih tinggi , kekhawatiran inflasi bisa memicu reaksi pasar di hari-hari mendatang


Bank Reserve of India diperkirakan akan menaikkan suku bunga sebesar 25 basis poin menjadi 3,75% dan menaikkan suku bunga cadangan menjadi 6%  dari 5,75%.

Setelah bank menaikkan suku bunga, cadangan menjadi 5,75% dari 5% bertentangan dengan harapan, permintaan bank sentral agar semua bank dan pemberi pinjaman komersial di India agar meningkatkan jumlah cadangan demi mengurangi likuiditas dalam sistem keuangan.

Di sisi lain, Bank of Thailand diharapkan bisa mempertahankan suku bunga 1,25%. Kebijakan bank terus melanjutkan upaya untuk mempertahankan harga rendah demi merangsang pertumbuhan ekonomi dan  agar bisa segera keluar dari resesi.

Pindah ke Filipina, mereka juga diharapkan untuk mempertahankan suku bunga agar tetap stabil di 4,0%. Mereka sebelumnya telah mengisyaratkan bahwa tingkat suku bunga akan naik tahun ini, namun di tengah tingkat inflasi mereka akan mempertahankan agar suku bunga tetap stabil untuk mendukung pertumbuhan.

Bank Sentral Sri Lanka akan mengumumkan suku bunga selama minggu ini. Tingkat suku bunga saat ini berada di 7,50% dan diharapkan bank bisa menaikkan suku bunga di tahun pertama untuk mengendalikan inflasi. Harga semakin bertambah terutama dengan meningkatnya permintaan dan berakhirnya masa perang saudara.

Adapun Reserve Bank of Australia  akan merilis dalam waktu dekat keputusan untuk kenaikan suku bunga menjadi 4,25%. Diharapkan april ini ada jedah waktu untuk bisa memberi respon pada pemulihan lanjutan dan memperkuat pertumbuhan, sementara kemungkinan adanya keinginan untuk menunda kenaikan di bulan depan namun akhirnya mereka terbuka untuk kenaikan suku bunga lebih lanjut tahun ini.

Ekonomi Jepang akan merilis sejumlah fundamental minggu ini dan yang paling penting akan Februari  Tersier indeks. Setelah sebelumnya melaporkan peningkatan  2,9% yang dilaporkan pada bulan Februari akan sangat mendukung pasar, terutama ekuitas sebagaian ekonomi terus mengalami pemulihan di tengah ancaman defiasi yang meningkat. 


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EUR / USD looks to move up and down, but the pair tends to return to around 1.36. Rumors are circulating mention the efforts of the Swiss investor who tries to keep EUR / USD in the range of 1.36 options expiry. Option expiry reportedly large enough and if this happens, then the EUR / USD seems to be difficult to stay away from 1.36.



EUR / GBP fell to 0.881 depressed this afternoon. Pair had been trying to do recovery ke0, 885 but failed and moved back down again. Volatility of the EUR / GBP seems to be triggered by the Greek bond sale that occurred this afternoon and also publicity-publicity surrounding the upcoming elections England May 6.





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Fundamental Analysis - 12 April 2010

19:15 pm --- --- Canada --- Housing Starts From month to month the number of building new residents continue to increase, today's data is also expected to show better results than last month. If released in the above predictions, it will further enhance the economic optimism of Canada and the CAD.

21:30 pm --- Canada --- --- BoC Business Outlook Survey Results of this survey will provide a very important to the economy of Canada, in addition, the survey results can also be related to the GDP and the various activities of domestic consumers.



1:00 pm America --- --- --- Federal Budget Balance data will show the difference between revenues and expenditures of the Fed. After last month's deficit to swell to -220 billion USD, this time data will be better predicted, around -101 billion USD. If released better than predicted, will benefit the U.S. dollar.

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EUR / GBP fell sharply to around 0.871. Pair failed to perform recovery after the Bundesbank reportedly refused aid to Greece, was rumored plans other than the EU and the IMF will bring negative impact on economic stability. Bond Greece continues to increase and this makes the euro under pressure. (Rht)

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Total employment in Canada released lower than predicted, it makes the USD / CAD sped up sharply from 0.999 to 1.008 range. However, strengthening the momentum lasted only a moment and pair back down to around 1.005 today. (Ast)

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